Spring in the time of Corona

I think a lot about systems and how large scale change happens in society; one of my favorite frameworks is the ‘multi-level perspective’ developed by Frank Geels. A simple version looks like this:

It says that change generally happens on the outside of the dominant structures, usually beginning with a ‘niche innovation’. It could be a technological change like small, light telephones, or a social one like washing your hands for 20 seconds while singing your favorite song. Experimental changes that start on a small scale can remain on the margins and die off, or they can end up transforming the dominant system and become integral to it, changing policies, laws, technologies, infrastructures and the daily habits of millions of people. Because the incumbent ‘regime’ is locked in place by existing interests, sunk investments in skills or infrastructure, economies of scale and established rules and institutions, niche innovations usually need incubation spaces to grow protected from the dominant one, with supports like temporary subsidies and help from well-connected actors.

Over and above all of this are ‘landscape level’ changes, the kind of things that are beyond the control of both niche and regime actors. It includes gradual shifts, like changes in cultural preferences and demographics, as well as shocks like oil crises, recessions…and the COVID-19 virus. 

It’s breathtaking to be seeing and living how quickly change can happen at this landscape level. While the negative impacts on human life are stark, there are also giant opportunities. 

You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that is it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.

Rahm Emanuel, former White House Chief of Staff and Chicago mayor

Not only do we all know ten times as much about viruses than we did a few weeks ago, but we’re living social change on a grand scale, with a billion people currently experiencing confinement. Like the climate, viruses know no borders. Corona is calling on the global community of epidemiologists, microbiologists, physicians  and other scientists to understand how it incubates, grows, spreads, rebounds — and explain it to the rest of us. 

The way that different political leaders step into this crisis is fascinating me. Those that emit calm, practicality, deep empathy and a commitment to sharing the truth, regardless of their political stripe, are impressive. Stand-outs include Jacinda Ardern (New Zealand), François Legault (Quebec), Andrew Cuomo (New York) and Angela Merkel (Germany). The scientists that these leaders defer to are equally impressive, and the simple fact that they defer is another mark of true leadership. The fake news question has become so contentious in some political environments that it’s easy to dismiss how vital good information is — accompanied by recognition that we can be wrong. Corona represents an opportunity for governments to reinstate citizen’s faith in the importance of public institutions. As we watch different governments react very differently, it simultaneously puts us face-to-face with issues around autocratic governments and the loss of democracy and citizen control.

Paradoxically, Corona is bringing out localism as well as globalism. The ugly face of localism is hoarding of masks, toilet paper and testing kits, and xenophobic blaming of ‘outsiders’ spreading the virus. The beautiful face is the renewed recognition of how fragile our survival systems are in the face of blocked trade routes and closed borders. While so far borders have been shut to people, not goods, we are awakening to the reality that we have only a few days of food available if trade routes should be cut and that if factories producing essential electronic components should close, we’re in trouble. Whether the cause is a virus, energy shortages or a war, the importance of ensuring a degree of local production is becoming increasingly clear. The Post Carbon Institute’s The Future is Rural: Food System Adaptations to the Great Simplification makes a good case for the need to prepare for forced relocalization of economies and more connected local communities. 

The question of local economies is especially stark in these times of confinement with restaurants closed and shows cancelled. I keep thinking about money that isn’t being spent and what happens to it. For salaried employees whose income hasn’t been reduced, funds will likely stay in savings accounts and eventually be spent once circulation resumes – hopefully on fewer cruises and more local economies. But for businesses from airlines companies to restaurant owners, there will be profound effects, likely only partly mitigated by government supports. Without wading into global macroeconomic issues, my optimistic side hopes for three things: 

1. That this will provide another wake-up call to the limits to growth and current lack of resilience of our growth-driven financial system
2. That individuals and governments will support local businesses, artists and others in the gig economy enough to weather the storm 
3. That we change our habits to move further away from non-essential flights, cruises and consumption of luxuries and closer to local, sustainable economies.

Speaking of habits, the final way in which we must not let this crisis go to waste is the opportunity it presents to live our daily lives differently. On the one hand, after 10 days of confinement I am already deeply missing in-person meetings, coffees and meals with friends, the vibrancy and humanity of markets, schools and stores — and the three-cheek kiss common in the south of France. On the other, it’s impressive to see the speed with which people are learning to live and learn online, from massive conferences to school courses to chats with friends. Flattening the corona curve is forcing reduced consumption and can build new habits. At our house, this definitely involves too much screen time — but we also now have ‘reading hour’ and have started window chats with our neighbours.

The importance of our connection to nature is never so clear as when we are deprived of it. While there are limits to how we can do this in confinement, Lucy Jones, author of Losing Eden: Why Our Minds Need the Wild offers some wonderful ideas in this Guardian article. So walk in the park if you can, smell some herbs, and feast your eyes on greenery whether a tree or a potted plant, for there is spring even in the time of Corona.